Agent Conversation: google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Model: google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview
Total steps: 6
Messages: 13
UserStep 0
Task: ts-short-term-forecast
Short-Term Time Series Forecasting: Custom Model Design
Objective
Design and implement a custom deep learning model for univariate short-term time series forecasting on the M4 dataset. Your code goes in the Model class in models/Custom.py. Three reference implementations (DLinear, TimesNet, PatchTST) are provided as read-only.
Evaluation
Trained and evaluated on three M4 seasonal patterns:
- Monthly (pred_len=18, seq_len=104)
- Quarterly (pred_len=8, seq_len=52)
- Yearly (pred_len=6, seq_len=42)
All use enc_in=1, features=M, loss=SMAPE. Metric: SMAPE (lower is better).
Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py [EDITABLE — entire file only]
1: import torch
2: import torch.nn as nn
3:
4:
5: class Model(nn.Module):
6: """
7: Custom model for short-term time series forecasting (M4 dataset).
8:
9: Forward signature: forward(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None)
10: - x_enc: [batch, seq_len, enc_in] — input time series (enc_in=1 for M4)
11: - x_mark_enc: [batch, seq_len, time_features] — time feature encoding
12: - x_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, dec_in] — decoder input
13: - x_mark_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, time_features] — decoder time features
14:
15: Must return: [batch, pred_len, c_out] for forecasting
16: """
17:
18: def __init__(self, configs):
19: super(Model, self).__init__()
20: self.task_name = configs.task_name
21: self.seq_len = configs.seq_len
22: self.pred_len = configs.pred_len
23: self.enc_in = configs.enc_in
24: self.c_out = configs.c_out
25: # TODO: Define your model architecture here
26:
27: def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):
28: """
29: Forecasting: given input sequence, predict future values.
30: Input: x_enc [batch, seq_len, 1]
31: Output: [batch, pred_len, 1]
32: """
33: # TODO: Implement your forecasting logic
34: batch_size = x_enc.shape[0]
35: return torch.zeros(batch_size, self.pred_len, self.c_out).to(x_enc.device)
36:
37: def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):
38: if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':
39: dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)
40: return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]
41: return None
Time-Series-Library/models/DLinear.py [READ-ONLY — do not edit]
1: import torch
2: import torch.nn as nn
3: import torch.nn.functional as F
4: from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp
5:
6:
7: class Model(nn.Module):
8: """
9: Paper link: https://aAssistantStep 1edit
Tool Input
1{
2 "end_line": 41,
3 "op": "replace",
4 "start_line": 1,
5 "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
6 "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nimport torch.nn.functional as F\n\nclass SpectralMoEBlock(nn.Module):\n def __init__(self, seq_len, pred_len, num_experts=3):\n super(SpectralMoEBlock, self).__init__()\n self.seq_len = seq_len\n self.pred_len = pred_len\n self.num_experts = num_experts\n freq_len = seq_len // 2 + 1\n \n self.gate = nn.Sequential(\n nn.Linear(freq_len, 64),\n nn.GELU(),\n nn.Linear(64, freq_len * num_experts)\n )\n \n self.forecast_experts = nn.ModuleList([\n nn.Linear(seq_len, pred_len) for _ in range(num_experts)\n ])\n \n self.backcast_experts = nn.ModuleList([\n nn.Linear(seq_len, seq_len) for _ in range(num_experts)\n ])\n\n def forward(self, x):\n # x: [B, D, L]\n batch_size, D, L = x.shape\n freq_len = L // 2 + 1\n \n # FFT\n xfft = torch.fft.rfft(x, dim=-1) # [B, D, freq_len]\n amp = torch.abs(xfft) # [B, D, freq_len]\n \n # Gating\n logits = self.gate(amp) # [B, D, freq_len * num_experts]\n logits = logits.view(batch_size, D, freq_len, self.num_experts)\n gates = torch.softmax(logits, dim=-1) # [B, D, freq_len, num_experts]\n \n # Expert specific signals\n y_forecast = 0\n x_backcast = 0\n \n for k in range(self.num_experts):\n # Masking in freq domain\n mask_k = gates[..., k] # [B, D, freq_len]\n xfft_k = xfft * mask_k\n \n # Inverse FFT\n x_k = torch.fft.irfft(xfft_k, n=self.seq_len, dim=-1) # [B, D, L]\n \n # Linear projection\n y_forecast = y_forecast + self.forecast_experts[k](x_k)\n x_backcast = x_backcast + self.backcast_experts[k](x_k)\n \n return x_backcast, y_forecast\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n \"\"\"\n Custom model for short-term time series forecasting (M4 dataset).\n Incorporates Spectral Mixture of Experts (Spectral-MoE) on continuous residual blocks.\n Algorithm:\n 1. Input is Instance Normalized.\n 2. Deep Residual Blocks sequentially operate on the series.\n 3. Within each block, a dynamic frequency-domain router (MoE) isolates\n sub-spaces (e.g. dynamic low/high pass filtering) learned from the signal amplitude.\n 4. Time-domain linear experts specialize in predicting future (forecast) \n and reconstructing the input (backcast).\n \"\"\"\n\n def __init__(self, configs):\n super(Model, self).__init__()\n self.task_name = configs.task_name\n self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n self.c_out = configs.c_out\n \n self.num_blocks = 3 # Deep residual stages\n num_experts = 3 # Specialists per stage\n \n self.blocks = nn.ModuleList([\n SpectralMoEBlock(self.seq_len, self.pred_len, num_experts=num_experts)\n for _ in range(self.num_blocks)\n ])\n \n if self.c_out != self.enc_in:\n self.projection = nn.Linear(self.enc_in, self.c_out)\n else:\n self.projection = None\n\n def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n \"\"\"\n Forecasting logic.\n Input: x_enc [batch, seq_len, enc_in]\n Output: [batch, pred_len, c_out]\n \"\"\"\n # RevIN-like Instance Normalization\n means = x_enc.mean(dim=1, keepdim=True).detach()\n x_enc_norm = x_enc - means\n stdev = torch.sqrt(torch.var(x_enc_norm, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n x_enc_norm = x_enc_norm / stdev\n \n # Reshape to [B, D, L]\n x = x_enc_norm.transpose(1, 2)\n \n y_pred = torch.zeros(x.shape[0], x.shape[1], self.pred_len, device=x.device)\n \n for block in self.blocks:\n x_backcast, block_forecast = block(x)\n x = x - x_backcast\n y_pred = y_pred + block_forecast\n \n # Reshape back to [B, L, D]\n y_pred = y_pred.transpose(1, 2)\n \n # De-Normalization\n y_pred = y_pred * (stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1))\n y_pred = y_pred + (means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1))\n \n if self.projection is not None:\n y_pred = self.projection(y_pred)\n \n return y_pred\n\n def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':\n dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n return None\n"
7}Tool ResultStep 1
OK: Replaced lines 1..41 with 131 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.
[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–131 | total: 131 lines]
1 import torch
2 import torch.nn as nn
3 import torch.nn.functional as F
4
5 class SpectralMoEBlock(nn.Module):
6 def __init__(self, seq_len, pred_len, num_experts=3):
7 super(SpectralMoEBlock, self).__init__()
8 self.seq_len = seq_len
9 self.pred_len = pred_len
10 self.num_experts = num_experts
11 freq_len = seq_len // 2 + 1
12
13 self.gate = nn.Sequential(
14 nn.Linear(freq_len, 64),
15 nn.GELU(),
16 nn.Linear(64, freq_len * num_experts)
17 )
18
19 self.forecast_experts = nn.ModuleList([
20 nn.Linear(seq_len, pred_len) for _ in range(num_experts
AssistantStep 2test
Tool ResultStep 2
[Test #1] (2 tests remaining; call submit(n=1) to submit this result) ### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.5575331 vali_loss=12.6898486 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.5059884 vali_loss=12.6873497 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.5161928 vali_loss=12.6778644 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.4975956 vali_loss=12.6618254 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.4870430 vali_loss=12.6664189 Test results (m4_monthly): SMAPE: 12.6618, MAPE: 12.6618, MAPE: 0.1482 ### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.0679929 vali_loss=10.1052971 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.0874488 vali_loss=10.0838983 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.0162592 vali_loss=10.0911399 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=6.9993838 vali_loss=10.0870180 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=6.9955672 vali_loss=10.0901283 Test results (m4_quarterly): SMAPE: 10.0839, MAPE: 10.0839, MAPE:
AssistantStep 3edit
Tool Input
1{
2 "end_line": 81,
3 "start_line": 80,
4 "content": " self.num_blocks = 2 # Deep residual stages\n num_experts = 4 # Specialists per stage\n",
5 "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
6 "op": "replace"
7}Tool ResultStep 3
OK: Replaced lines 80..81 with 2 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.
[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–131 | total: 131 lines]
1 import torch
2 import torch.nn as nn
3 import torch.nn.functional as F
4
5 class SpectralMoEBlock(nn.Module):
6 def __init__(self, seq_len, pred_len, num_experts=3):
7 super(SpectralMoEBlock, self).__init__()
8 self.seq_len = seq_len
9 self.pred_len = pred_len
10 self.num_experts = num_experts
11 freq_len = seq_len // 2 + 1
12
13 self.gate = nn.Sequential(
14 nn.Linear(freq_len, 64),
15 nn.GELU(),
16 nn.Linear(64, freq_len * num_experts)
17 )
18
19 self.forecast_experts = nn.ModuleList([
20 nn.Linear(seq_len, pred_len) for _ in range(num_experts)
AssistantStep 4test
Tool ResultStep 4
[Test #2] (1 test remaining; call submit(n=2) to submit this result) ### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.4763590 vali_loss=12.6904281 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.4498906 vali_loss=12.6508191 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.5106367 vali_loss=12.6536975 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.4840158 vali_loss=12.6542170 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.4927647 vali_loss=12.6512725 Test results (m4_monthly): SMAPE: 12.6508, MAPE: 12.6508, MAPE: 0.1473 ### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=6.9588442 vali_loss=10.1507261 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.0156102 vali_loss=10.1399915 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.0486403 vali_loss=10.1360787 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.0104080 vali_loss=10.1394913 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.0089109 vali_loss=10.1346209 Test results (m4_quarterly): SMAPE: 10.1346, MAPE: 10.1346, MAPE:
AssistantStep 5edit
Tool Input
1{
2 "end_line": 131,
3 "start_line": 1,
4 "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
5 "op": "replace",
6 "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nimport torch.nn.functional as F\nfrom layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp\n\nclass SpectralMoEBlock(nn.Module):\n def __init__(self, seq_len, pred_len, num_experts=3):\n super(SpectralMoEBlock, self).__init__()\n self.seq_len = seq_len\n self.pred_len = pred_len\n self.num_experts = num_experts\n freq_len = seq_len // 2 + 1\n \n self.gate = nn.Sequential(\n nn.Linear(freq_len, 64),\n nn.GELU(),\n nn.Dropout(0.1),\n nn.Linear(64, freq_len * num_experts)\n )\n \n self.forecast_experts = nn.ModuleList([\n nn.Linear(seq_len, pred_len) for _ in range(num_experts)\n ])\n \n self.backcast_experts = nn.ModuleList([\n nn.Linear(seq_len, seq_len) for _ in range(num_experts)\n ])\n\n def forward(self, x):\n batch_size, D, L = x.shape\n freq_len = L // 2 + 1\n \n xfft = torch.fft.rfft(x, dim=-1) \n amp = torch.abs(xfft) \n \n logits = self.gate(amp) \n logits = logits.view(batch_size, D, freq_len, self.num_experts)\n gates = torch.softmax(logits, dim=-1) \n \n y_forecast = 0\n x_backcast = 0\n \n for k in range(self.num_experts):\n mask_k = gates[..., k] \n xfft_k = xfft * mask_k\n \n x_k = torch.fft.irfft(xfft_k, n=self.seq_len, dim=-1) \n \n y_forecast = y_forecast + self.forecast_experts[k](x_k)\n x_backcast = x_backcast + self.backcast_experts[k](x_k)\n \n return x_backcast, y_forecast\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n def __init__(self, configs):\n super(Model, self).__init__()\n self.task_name = configs.task_name\n self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n self.c_out = configs.c_out\n \n self.decomp = series_decomp(25)\n self.linear_trend = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n \n self.num_blocks = 3 \n num_experts = 3 \n \n self.blocks = nn.ModuleList([\n SpectralMoEBlock(self.seq_len, self.pred_len, num_experts=num_experts)\n for _ in range(self.num_blocks)\n ])\n \n if self.c_out != self.enc_in:\n self.projection = nn.Linear(self.enc_in, self.c_out)\n else:\n self.projection = None\n\n def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n # RevIN-like Instance Normalization\n means = x_enc.mean(dim=1, keepdim=True).detach()\n x_enc_norm = x_enc - means\n stdev = torch.sqrt(torch.var(x_enc_norm, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n x_enc_norm = x_enc_norm / stdev\n \n # Decomposition\n res, trend = self.decomp(x_enc_norm) # [B, L, D]\n \n y_trend = self.linear_trend(trend.transpose(1, 2)).transpose(1, 2)\n \n # Reshape to [B, D, L] for Spectral blocks\n x = res.transpose(1, 2)\n \n y_sea = torch.zeros(x.shape[0], x.shape[1], self.pred_len, device=x.device)\n \n for block in self.blocks:\n x_backcast, block_forecast = block(x)\n x = x - x_backcast\n y_sea = y_sea + block_forecast\n \n y_sea = y_sea.transpose(1, 2) # [B, pred_len, D]\n \n y_pred = y_trend + y_sea\n \n # De-Normalization\n y_pred = y_pred * (stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1))\n y_pred = y_pred + (means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1))\n \n if self.projection is not None:\n y_pred = self.projection(y_pred)\n \n return y_pred\n\n def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':\n dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n return None"
7}Tool ResultStep 5
OK: Replaced lines 1..131 with 118 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.
[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–118 | total: 118 lines]
1 import torch
2 import torch.nn as nn
3 import torch.nn.functional as F
4 from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp
5
6 class SpectralMoEBlock(nn.Module):
7 def __init__(self, seq_len, pred_len, num_experts=3):
8 super(SpectralMoEBlock, self).__init__()
9 self.seq_len = seq_len
10 self.pred_len = pred_len
11 self.num_experts = num_experts
12 freq_len = seq_len // 2 + 1
13
14 self.gate = nn.Sequential(
15 nn.Linear(freq_len, 64),
16 nn.GELU(),
17 nn.Dropout(0.1),
18 nn.Linear(64, freq_len * num_experts)
19 )
20
21 self.forecast_expe
AssistantStep 6test
Tool ResultStep 6
[Test #3] (0 tests remaining) ### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.5242806 vali_loss=12.5888643 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.4772877 vali_loss=12.5883550 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.4552466 vali_loss=12.5889552 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.5464168 vali_loss=12.5904477 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.4413244 vali_loss=12.5880354 Test results (m4_monthly): SMAPE: 12.5880, MAPE: 12.5880, MAPE: 0.1470 ### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.0015219 vali_loss=10.1300181 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=6.9824530 vali_loss=10.1373438 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=6.9556818 vali_loss=10.1225164 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.0714006 vali_loss=10.1192015 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.0115321 vali_loss=10.1189755 Test results (m4_quarterly): SMAPE: 10.1190, MAPE: 10.1190, MAPE: 0.1157 ### m4_yearly (scripts/m4_yearl