Agent Conversation: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6

Model: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6
Total steps: 5
Messages: 11
UserStep 0

Task: ts-short-term-forecast

Short-Term Time Series Forecasting: Custom Model Design

Objective

Design and implement a custom deep learning model for univariate short-term time series forecasting on the M4 dataset. Your code goes in the Model class in models/Custom.py. Three reference implementations (DLinear, TimesNet, PatchTST) are provided as read-only.

Evaluation

Trained and evaluated on three M4 seasonal patterns:

  • Monthly (pred_len=18, seq_len=104)
  • Quarterly (pred_len=8, seq_len=52)
  • Yearly (pred_len=6, seq_len=42)

All use enc_in=1, features=M, loss=SMAPE. Metric: SMAPE (lower is better).

Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py [EDITABLE — entire file only]

     1: import torch
     2: import torch.nn as nn
     3: 
     4: 
     5: class Model(nn.Module):
     6:     """
     7:     Custom model for short-term time series forecasting (M4 dataset).
     8: 
     9:     Forward signature: forward(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None)
    10:     - x_enc: [batch, seq_len, enc_in] — input time series (enc_in=1 for M4)
    11:     - x_mark_enc: [batch, seq_len, time_features] — time feature encoding
    12:     - x_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, dec_in] — decoder input
    13:     - x_mark_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, time_features] — decoder time features
    14: 
    15:     Must return: [batch, pred_len, c_out] for forecasting
    16:     """
    17: 
    18:     def __init__(self, configs):
    19:         super(Model, self).__init__()
    20:         self.task_name = configs.task_name
    21:         self.seq_len = configs.seq_len
    22:         self.pred_len = configs.pred_len
    23:         self.enc_in = configs.enc_in
    24:         self.c_out = configs.c_out
    25:         # TODO: Define your model architecture here
    26: 
    27:     def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):
    28:         """
    29:         Forecasting: given input sequence, predict future values.
    30:         Input: x_enc [batch, seq_len, 1]
    31:         Output: [batch, pred_len, 1]
    32:         """
    33:         # TODO: Implement your forecasting logic
    34:         batch_size = x_enc.shape[0]
    35:         return torch.zeros(batch_size, self.pred_len, self.c_out).to(x_enc.device)
    36: 
    37:     def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):
    38:         if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':
    39:             dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)
    40:             return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]
    41:         return None

Time-Series-Library/models/DLinear.py [READ-ONLY — do not edit]

     1: import torch
     2: import torch.nn as nn
     3: import torch.nn.functional as F
     4: from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp
     5: 
     6: 
     7: class Model(nn.Module):
     8:     """
     9:     Paper link: https://a
AssistantStep 1edit
Tool Input
1{
2  "op": "replace",
3  "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
4  "start_line": 1,
5  "end_line": 41,
6  "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nimport torch.nn.functional as F\n\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n    \"\"\"\n    Spectral-Guided Multi-Scale Decomposition Linear (SGMSDLinear)\n\n    Novel forecasting model combining:\n    1. Multi-scale trend-seasonal decomposition (kernels 3, 7, 13, 25)\n    2. Frequency-domain filtered prediction branch with learnable spectral mask\n    3. Spectral energy-guided adaptive scale weighting — the optimal decomposition\n       scale is selected per-instance based on its frequency profile\n\n    Key insight: Different time series require different decomposition granularity.\n    High-frequency dominated series benefit from small kernels (fine decomposition),\n    while smooth/trending series benefit from large kernels. This model learns\n    to route each input to the most appropriate decomposition scale using its\n    spectral energy distribution as a routing signal.\n    \"\"\"\n\n    def __init__(self, configs):\n        super(Model, self).__init__()\n        self.task_name = configs.task_name\n        self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n        self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n        self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n        self.c_out = configs.c_out\n\n        # Multi-scale decomposition kernels (odd sizes for symmetric padding)\n        self.kernels = [3, 7, 13, 25]\n        self.n_scales = len(self.kernels)\n        n_branches = self.n_scales + 1  # +1 for frequency branch\n\n        # Per-scale seasonal and trend linear predictors (DLinear-style init)\n        self.seasonal_linears = nn.ModuleList()\n        self.trend_linears = nn.ModuleList()\n        for _ in range(self.n_scales):\n            s_lin = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n            t_lin = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n            s_lin.weight = nn.Parameter(\n                (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n            t_lin.weight = nn.Parameter(\n                (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n            self.seasonal_linears.append(s_lin)\n            self.trend_linears.append(t_lin)\n\n        # Frequency-domain branch: learnable spectral filter + linear projection\n        n_freq = self.seq_len // 2 + 1\n        self.freq_filter = nn.Parameter(torch.ones(n_freq) * 3.0)  # sigmoid(3)≈0.95\n        self.freq_linear = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n        self.freq_linear.weight = nn.Parameter(\n            (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n\n        # Spectral energy-guided scale selector network\n        # Maps normalized spectral energy distribution -> branch weights\n        self.scale_selector = nn.Sequential(\n            nn.Linear(n_freq, 32),\n            nn.GELU(),\n            nn.Linear(32, n_branches),\n        )\n        # Initialize to produce roughly uniform weights initially\n        nn.init.zeros_(self.scale_selector[2].weight)\n        nn.init.zeros_(self.scale_selector[2].bias)\n\n    def _decompose(self, x, kernel_size):\n        \"\"\"Trend-seasonal decomposition via moving average with boundary padding.\"\"\"\n        half = (kernel_size - 1) // 2\n        front = x[:, :1, :].repeat(1, half, 1)\n        end = x[:, -1:, :].repeat(1, half, 1)\n        x_padded = torch.cat([front, x, end], dim=1)\n        trend = F.avg_pool1d(\n            x_padded.permute(0, 2, 1), kernel_size, stride=1\n        ).permute(0, 2, 1)\n        seasonal = x - trend\n        return seasonal, trend\n\n    def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n        # Instance normalization (Non-stationary Transformer style)\n        means = x_enc.mean(1, keepdim=True).detach()\n        x_enc = x_enc - means\n        stdev = torch.sqrt(\n            torch.var(x_enc, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n        x_enc = x_enc / stdev\n\n        B, T, C = x_enc.shape\n\n        # --- Spectral analysis for adaptive scale selection ---\n        x_freq = torch.fft.rfft(x_enc, dim=1)  # [B, n_freq, C]\n        spectral_energy = (x_freq.abs() ** 2).mean(dim=-1)  # [B, n_freq]\n        spectral_energy = spectral_energy / (spectral_energy.sum(-1, keepdim=True) + 1e-8)\n\n        # Compute per-instance adaptive branch weights\n        scale_weights = F.softmax(\n            self.scale_selector(spectral_energy), dim=-1)  # [B, n_branches]\n\n        branch_outputs = []\n\n        # --- Multi-scale temporal decomposition branches ---\n        for i, k in enumerate(self.kernels):\n            seasonal, trend = self._decompose(x_enc, k)\n            s_pred = self.seasonal_linears[i](\n                seasonal.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n            t_pred = self.trend_linears[i](\n                trend.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n            branch_outputs.append(s_pred + t_pred)\n\n        # --- Frequency-domain filtered branch ---\n        freq_mask = torch.sigmoid(self.freq_filter).unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(-1)\n        x_filtered = torch.fft.irfft(x_freq * freq_mask, n=T, dim=1)\n        f_pred = self.freq_linear(x_filtered.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n        branch_outputs.append(f_pred)\n\n        # --- Spectral-guided weighted combination ---\n        stacked = torch.stack(branch_outputs, dim=-1)  # [B, pred_len, C, n_branches]\n        w = scale_weights.unsqueeze(1).unsqueeze(2)     # [B, 1, 1, n_branches]\n        output = (stacked * w).sum(dim=-1)               # [B, pred_len, C]\n\n        # De-normalization\n        output = output * stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1)\n        output = output + means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1)\n\n        return output\n\n    def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n        if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':\n            dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n            return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n        return None\n"
7}
Tool ResultStep 1
OK: Replaced lines 1..41 with 130 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.

[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–130 | total: 130 lines]
     1  import torch
     2  import torch.nn as nn
     3  import torch.nn.functional as F
     4  
     5  
     6  class Model(nn.Module):
     7      """
     8      Spectral-Guided Multi-Scale Decomposition Linear (SGMSDLinear)
     9  
    10      Novel forecasting model combining:
    11      1. Multi-scale trend-seasonal decomposition (kernels 3, 7, 13, 25)
    12      2. Frequency-domain filtered prediction branch with learnable spectral mask
    13      3. Spectral energy-guided adaptive scale weighting — the optimal decomposition
    14         scale is selected per-instance based on its frequency profile
    15  
    16      Key insight: Different time series require different decomposition granularity.
    17      High-frequency dominated series benefit from small kernels (f
AssistantStep 2test
Tool ResultStep 2
[Test #1] (2 tests remaining; call submit(n=1) to submit this result)

### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=7.8827263 vali_loss=13.0208394
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=7.7697824 vali_loss=12.9170089
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=7.7198126 vali_loss=12.9417918
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=7.6888872 vali_loss=12.9297149
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.6710533 vali_loss=12.9212954
Test results (m4_monthly):
  SMAPE: 12.9170, MAPE: 12.9170, MAPE: 0.1535

### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.0919746 vali_loss=10.3299995
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.1415941 vali_loss=10.3262363
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.1327159 vali_loss=10.3252693
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.0514375 vali_loss=10.3237711
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.1190611 vali_loss=10.3240789
Test results (m4_quarterly):
  SMAPE: 10.3238, MAPE: 10.3238, MAPE: 
AssistantStep 3edit
Tool Input
1{
2  "op": "replace",
3  "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
4  "start_line": 1,
5  "end_line": 130,
6  "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nimport torch.nn.functional as F\n\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n    \"\"\"\n    Multi-Scale Slope-Aware Decomposition Linear (MSSADLinear)\n\n    Novel forecasting model combining three key contributions:\n\n    1. Multi-scale trend-seasonal decomposition: Instead of a single fixed\n       moving average kernel (DLinear), decompose at multiple scales (3,7,13,25)\n       to capture patterns at different granularities.\n\n    2. Slope-aware trend extrapolation: For each decomposition scale, blend\n       a learned linear forecast with an explicit local slope continuation.\n       The blending weight (alpha) is learned per-scale. This provides a strong\n       inductive bias: the future trend should continue the recent trajectory.\n       Different scales use different slope windows proportional to their kernel\n       size, ensuring the slope is estimated at the appropriate time scale.\n\n    3. Frequency-domain filtered branch: Apply a learnable spectral mask to\n       selectively pass or suppress specific frequency components, then predict\n       via linear projection. This captures periodic patterns missed by\n       the trend-seasonal decomposition.\n\n    All branches are combined via learned softmax weights.\n    \"\"\"\n\n    def __init__(self, configs):\n        super(Model, self).__init__()\n        self.task_name = configs.task_name\n        self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n        self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n        self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n        self.c_out = configs.c_out\n\n        # Multi-scale decomposition kernels\n        self.kernels = [3, 7, 13, 25]\n        self.n_scales = len(self.kernels)\n        n_branches = self.n_scales + 1  # +1 for frequency branch\n\n        # Per-scale slope estimation windows (proportional to kernel size)\n        self.slope_windows = [max(3, k // 3) for k in self.kernels]\n\n        # Per-scale seasonal and trend linear predictors (DLinear-style init)\n        self.seasonal_linears = nn.ModuleList()\n        self.trend_linears = nn.ModuleList()\n        for _ in range(self.n_scales):\n            s_lin = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n            t_lin = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n            s_lin.weight = nn.Parameter(\n                (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n            t_lin.weight = nn.Parameter(\n                (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n            self.seasonal_linears.append(s_lin)\n            self.trend_linears.append(t_lin)\n\n        # Learnable slope blending weights (one per scale)\n        # sigmoid(0) = 0.5 -> equal blend initially\n        self.slope_alpha = nn.Parameter(torch.zeros(self.n_scales))\n\n        # Frequency-domain filtered branch\n        n_freq = self.seq_len // 2 + 1\n        self.freq_filter = nn.Parameter(torch.ones(n_freq) * 3.0)\n        self.freq_linear = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n        self.freq_linear.weight = nn.Parameter(\n            (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n\n        # Learned combination weights (initialized uniform via softmax of zeros)\n        self.combine_weights = nn.Parameter(torch.zeros(n_branches))\n\n    def _decompose(self, x, kernel_size):\n        \"\"\"Trend-seasonal decomposition via moving average with boundary padding.\"\"\"\n        half = (kernel_size - 1) // 2\n        front = x[:, :1, :].repeat(1, half, 1)\n        end = x[:, -1:, :].repeat(1, half, 1)\n        x_padded = torch.cat([front, x, end], dim=1)\n        trend = F.avg_pool1d(\n            x_padded.permute(0, 2, 1), kernel_size, stride=1\n        ).permute(0, 2, 1)\n        seasonal = x - trend\n        return seasonal, trend\n\n    def _slope_extrapolation(self, trend, slope_window):\n        \"\"\"\n        Compute local slope at the end of the trend and extrapolate forward.\n        This provides an explicit inductive bias for trend continuation.\n\n        Args:\n            trend: [B, T, C] - trend component\n            slope_window: int - number of recent points for slope estimation\n        Returns:\n            [B, pred_len, C] - slope-based trend extrapolation\n        \"\"\"\n        end_val = trend[:, -1:, :]  # [B, 1, C]\n        recent_mean = trend[:, -slope_window:, :].mean(dim=1, keepdim=True)\n        # Slope: rate of change per time step\n        slope = (end_val - recent_mean) / (slope_window / 2.0)\n        # Extrapolate forward\n        steps = torch.arange(1, self.pred_len + 1, device=trend.device).float()\n        return end_val + slope * steps.view(1, -1, 1)\n\n    def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n        # Instance normalization (Non-stationary Transformer style)\n        means = x_enc.mean(1, keepdim=True).detach()\n        x_enc = x_enc - means\n        stdev = torch.sqrt(\n            torch.var(x_enc, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n        x_enc = x_enc / stdev\n\n        B, T, C = x_enc.shape\n        branch_outputs = []\n\n        # --- Multi-scale decomposition with slope-aware trend ---\n        for i, k in enumerate(self.kernels):\n            seasonal, trend = self._decompose(x_enc, k)\n\n            # Seasonal prediction: learned linear mapping\n            s_pred = self.seasonal_linears[i](\n                seasonal.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n\n            # Trend prediction: blend of learned linear and slope extrapolation\n            t_linear = self.trend_linears[i](\n                trend.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n            t_slope = self._slope_extrapolation(trend, self.slope_windows[i])\n            alpha = torch.sigmoid(self.slope_alpha[i])\n            t_pred = alpha * t_slope + (1.0 - alpha) * t_linear\n\n            branch_outputs.append(s_pred + t_pred)\n\n        # --- Frequency-domain filtered branch ---\n        x_freq = torch.fft.rfft(x_enc, dim=1)\n        freq_mask = torch.sigmoid(self.freq_filter).unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(-1)\n        x_filtered = torch.fft.irfft(x_freq * freq_mask, n=T, dim=1)\n        f_pred = self.freq_linear(x_filtered.permute(0, 2, 1)).permute(0, 2, 1)\n        branch_outputs.append(f_pred)\n\n        # --- Learned weighted combination ---\n        weights = F.softmax(self.combine_weights, dim=0)\n        output = sum(w * o for w, o in zip(weights, branch_outputs))\n\n        # De-normalization\n        output = output * stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1)\n        output = output + means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(1, self.pred_len, 1)\n\n        return output\n\n    def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n        if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':\n            dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n            return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n        return None\n"
7}
Tool ResultStep 3
OK: Replaced lines 1..130 with 154 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.

[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–154 | total: 154 lines]
     1  import torch
     2  import torch.nn as nn
     3  import torch.nn.functional as F
     4  
     5  
     6  class Model(nn.Module):
     7      """
     8      Multi-Scale Slope-Aware Decomposition Linear (MSSADLinear)
     9  
    10      Novel forecasting model combining three key contributions:
    11  
    12      1. Multi-scale trend-seasonal decomposition: Instead of a single fixed
    13         moving average kernel (DLinear), decompose at multiple scales (3,7,13,25)
    14         to capture patterns at different granularities.
    15  
    16      2. Slope-aware trend extrapolation: For each decomposition scale, blend
    17         a learned linear forecast with an explicit local slope continuation.
    18         The blending weight (alpha) is learned per-scale. Th
AssistantStep 4test
Tool ResultStep 4
[Test #2] (1 test remaining; call submit(n=2) to submit this result)

### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=1 train_loss=8.2636473 vali_loss=13.4265765
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=8.2205583 vali_loss=13.3979840
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=8.1821761 vali_loss=13.4178741
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=8.1275037 vali_loss=13.4259759
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=8.1022161 vali_loss=13.4270813
Test results (m4_monthly):
  SMAPE: 13.3980, MAPE: 13.3980, MAPE: 0.1619

### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.4299559 vali_loss=10.6906921
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.4561457 vali_loss=10.6881321
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.3982165 vali_loss=10.6865959
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.3903766 vali_loss=10.6869213
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.3986557 vali_loss=10.6870055
Test results (m4_quarterly):
  SMAPE: 10.6866, MAPE: 10.6866, MAPE: 0
AssistantStep 5submit
Tool Input
1{
2  "n": 1
3}
Tool ResultStep 5
[submit] Submitting result from test #1 as final.

### m4_monthly (scripts/m4_monthly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=7.8827263 vali_loss=13.0208394
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=7.7697824 vali_loss=12.9170089
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=7.7198126 vali_loss=12.9417918
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=7.6888872 vali_loss=12.9297149
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.6710533 vali_loss=12.9212954
Test results (m4_monthly):
  SMAPE: 12.9170, MAPE: 12.9170, MAPE: 0.1535

### m4_quarterly (scripts/m4_quarterly.sh)
Training metrics (last epochs):
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=7.0919746 vali_loss=10.3299995
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=7.1415941 vali_loss=10.3262363
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=8 train_loss=7.1327159 vali_loss=10.3252693
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=9 train_loss=7.0514375 vali_loss=10.3237711
TRAIN_METRICS epoch=10 train_loss=7.1190611 vali_loss=10.3240789
Test results (m4_quarterly):
  SMAPE: 10.3238, MAPE: 10.3238, MAPE: 0.1197

### m4_yearl