Agent Conversation: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6
Model: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6
Total steps: 5
Messages: 11
UserStep 0
Task: ts-long-term-forecast
Long-Term Time Series Forecasting: Custom Model Design
Objective
Design and implement a custom deep learning model for multivariate long-term time series forecasting. Your code goes in the Model class in models/Custom.py. Three reference implementations (DLinear, PatchTST, iTransformer) are provided as read-only.
Evaluation
Trained and evaluated on three multivariate datasets:
- ETTh1 (7 variables, hourly electricity transformer temperature)
- Weather (21 variables, weather observations)
- ECL (321 variables, electricity consumption)
All use seq_len=96, pred_len=96. Metrics: MSE and MAE (lower is better).
Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py [EDITABLE — entire file only]
1: import torch
2: import torch.nn as nn
3:
4:
5: class Model(nn.Module):
6: """
7: Custom model for long-term time series forecasting.
8:
9: Forward signature: forward(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None)
10: - x_enc: [batch, seq_len, enc_in] — input time series
11: - x_mark_enc: [batch, seq_len, time_features] — time feature encoding
12: - x_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, dec_in] — decoder input
13: - x_mark_dec: [batch, label_len+pred_len, time_features] — decoder time features
14: - mask: optional binary mask
15:
16: Must return: [batch, pred_len, c_out] for forecasting
17: """
18:
19: def __init__(self, configs):
20: super(Model, self).__init__()
21: self.task_name = configs.task_name
22: self.seq_len = configs.seq_len
23: self.pred_len = configs.pred_len
24: self.enc_in = configs.enc_in
25: self.c_out = configs.c_out
26: # TODO: Define your model architecture here
27:
28: def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):
29: """
30: Forecasting: given input sequence, predict future values.
31: Input: x_enc [batch, seq_len, enc_in]
32: Output: [batch, pred_len, c_out]
33: """
34: # TODO: Implement your forecasting logic
35: # Placeholder: simple linear projection
36: batch_size = x_enc.shape[0]
37: return torch.zeros(batch_size, self.pred_len, self.c_out).to(x_enc.device)
38:
39: def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):
40: if self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast':
41: dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)
42: return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]
43: return None
Time-Series-Library/models/DLinear.py [READ-ONLY — do not edit]
1: import torch
2: import torch.nn as nn
3: import torch.nn.functional as F
4: from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import serieAssistantStep 1edit
Tool Input
1{
2 "op": "replace",
3 "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
4 "start_line": 1,
5 "end_line": 43,
6 "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nfrom layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp\n\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n \"\"\"\n Multi-Scale Spectral-Gated Decomposition Linear (MS-SpectralDLinear).\n\n Novel algorithmic contribution: Extends DLinear's single-scale decomposition\n with multi-scale processing and learnable frequency-domain gating.\n\n Key ideas:\n 1. Multi-scale decomposition: Uses multiple moving average kernels (3, 7, 13, 25)\n to capture patterns at different temporal resolutions.\n 2. Spectral gating: For each scale's seasonal component, applies a learnable\n sigmoid gate in the frequency domain. This allows the model to adaptively\n suppress or amplify specific frequencies at each scale, acting as learned\n bandpass filters.\n 3. Adaptive scale combination: Learns softmax weights to combine predictions\n from different scales.\n\n The motivation is that different temporal patterns (e.g., daily, weekly cycles)\n are best captured at different decomposition scales, and the spectral gate at\n each scale learns to focus on the relevant frequency band for that scale.\n \"\"\"\n\n def __init__(self, configs):\n super(Model, self).__init__()\n self.task_name = configs.task_name\n self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n self.c_out = configs.c_out\n\n # Multi-scale decomposition kernels\n self.kernel_sizes = [3, 7, 13, 25]\n self.n_scales = len(self.kernel_sizes)\n self.decomps = nn.ModuleList(\n [series_decomp(k) for k in self.kernel_sizes]\n )\n\n # Frequency domain: number of frequency bins for rfft\n n_freq = self.seq_len // 2 + 1\n\n # Learnable spectral gates per scale for seasonal components\n # Initialized at 0 -> sigmoid(0) = 0.5 (pass half the signal initially)\n self.spectral_gates = nn.ParameterList([\n nn.Parameter(torch.zeros(n_freq)) for _ in range(self.n_scales)\n ])\n\n # Per-scale linear projections for seasonal and trend\n self.seasonal_projs = nn.ModuleList()\n self.trend_projs = nn.ModuleList()\n for _ in range(self.n_scales):\n s_proj = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n s_proj.weight = nn.Parameter(\n (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n self.seasonal_projs.append(s_proj)\n\n t_proj = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n t_proj.weight = nn.Parameter(\n (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len))\n self.trend_projs.append(t_proj)\n\n # Learnable scale combination weights (softmax applied during forward)\n self.scale_logits = nn.Parameter(torch.zeros(self.n_scales))\n\n def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n # RevIN: Instance normalization\n means = x_enc.mean(1, keepdim=True).detach()\n x_enc = x_enc - means\n stdev = torch.sqrt(\n torch.var(x_enc, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n x_enc = x_enc / stdev\n\n B, L, C = x_enc.shape\n\n # Compute scale combination weights\n scale_w = torch.softmax(self.scale_logits, dim=0)\n\n # Multi-scale processing with spectral gating\n dec_out = torch.zeros(\n B, C, self.pred_len, device=x_enc.device, dtype=x_enc.dtype)\n\n for i in range(self.n_scales):\n # Decompose at this scale\n seasonal, trend = self.decomps[i](x_enc) # [B, L, C]\n\n # Spectral gating on seasonal component\n s = seasonal.permute(0, 2, 1) # [B, C, L]\n s_freq = torch.fft.rfft(s, dim=-1) # [B, C, n_freq]\n gate = torch.sigmoid(self.spectral_gates[i]) # [n_freq]\n s_freq = s_freq * gate.unsqueeze(0).unsqueeze(0)\n s = torch.fft.irfft(s_freq, n=L, dim=-1) # [B, C, L]\n\n # Linear projections (channel-independent)\n s_out = self.seasonal_projs[i](s) # [B, C, pred_len]\n t_out = self.trend_projs[i](\n trend.permute(0, 2, 1)) # [B, C, pred_len]\n\n # Weighted accumulation\n dec_out = dec_out + scale_w[i] * (s_out + t_out)\n\n dec_out = dec_out.permute(0, 2, 1) # [B, pred_len, C]\n\n # De-normalization\n dec_out = dec_out * stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(\n 1, self.pred_len, 1)\n dec_out = dec_out + means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(\n 1, self.pred_len, 1)\n\n return dec_out\n\n def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n if (self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or\n self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast'):\n dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n return None\n"
7}Tool ResultStep 1
OK: Replaced lines 1..43 with 120 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.
[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–120 | total: 120 lines]
1 import torch
2 import torch.nn as nn
3 from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp
4
5
6 class Model(nn.Module):
7 """
8 Multi-Scale Spectral-Gated Decomposition Linear (MS-SpectralDLinear).
9
10 Novel algorithmic contribution: Extends DLinear's single-scale decomposition
11 with multi-scale processing and learnable frequency-domain gating.
12
13 Key ideas:
14 1. Multi-scale decomposition: Uses multiple moving average kernels (3, 7, 13, 25)
15 to capture patterns at different temporal resolutions.
16 2. Spectral gating: For each scale's seasonal component, applies a learnable
17 sigmoid gate in the frequency domain. This allows the model to
AssistantStep 2test
Tool ResultStep 2
[Test #1] (2 tests remaining; call submit(n=1) to submit this result) ### ETTh1 (scripts/etth1.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=0.3749241 vali_loss=0.7202286 test_loss=0.4072160 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.3710556 vali_loss=0.7152871 test_loss=0.4046947 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.3706907 vali_loss=0.7218515 test_loss=0.4036141 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=0.3702361 vali_loss=0.7211302 test_loss=0.4030867 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=0.3695364 vali_loss=0.7188825 test_loss=0.4028445 Test results (ETTh1): MSE: 0.404779, MAE: 0.413640 ### Weather (scripts/weather.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.5077641 vali_loss=0.4843831 test_loss=0.1960850 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.5074490 vali_loss=0.4839627 test_loss=0.1958348 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=0.5072831 vali_loss=0.4844404 test_loss=0.1958998 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=7 train_loss=0.5072178 vali_loss=0.4840355 test_loss=0.1958795 TR
AssistantStep 3edit
Tool Input
1{
2 "op": "replace",
3 "filename": "Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py",
4 "start_line": 1,
5 "end_line": 120,
6 "content": "import torch\nimport torch.nn as nn\nfrom layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp\n\n\nclass Model(nn.Module):\n \"\"\"\n Frequency-Corrected Decomposition Linear (FC-DLinear).\n\n Novel algorithmic contribution: Augments DLinear with a non-linear\n frequency-domain residual correction that captures cross-frequency\n interactions the linear time-domain projections miss.\n\n Architecture:\n 1. RevIN (instance normalization) for distribution shift handling\n 2. DLinear backbone: series decomposition (moving average) into\n trend + seasonal, each processed by independent linear projections\n 3. Frequency correction path: FFT of input -> 2-layer MLP with GELU\n on concatenated real/imaginary parts -> IFFT to time-domain correction\n\n Key design choices:\n - The correction MLP output layer is zero-initialized, so the model\n starts exactly as DLinear+RevIN and gradually learns non-linear\n frequency adjustments. This provides a safe training curriculum.\n - The MLP's non-linearity (GELU) enables modeling of frequency coupling\n effects (e.g., harmonic interactions) that pure linear projections\n cannot capture.\n - Channel-independent processing for scalability to high-dimensional\n datasets (e.g., ECL with 321 variables).\n \"\"\"\n\n def __init__(self, configs):\n super(Model, self).__init__()\n self.task_name = configs.task_name\n self.seq_len = configs.seq_len\n self.pred_len = configs.pred_len\n self.enc_in = configs.enc_in\n self.c_out = configs.c_out\n\n # ---------- DLinear backbone ----------\n # Series decomposition with moving average\n kernel_size = getattr(configs, 'moving_avg', 25)\n self.decomp = series_decomp(kernel_size)\n\n # Linear projections for seasonal and trend (DLinear-style init)\n init_w = (1.0 / self.seq_len) * torch.ones(self.pred_len, self.seq_len)\n\n self.seasonal_proj = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n self.seasonal_proj.weight = nn.Parameter(init_w.clone())\n\n self.trend_proj = nn.Linear(self.seq_len, self.pred_len)\n self.trend_proj.weight = nn.Parameter(init_w.clone())\n\n # ---------- Frequency correction path ----------\n n_freq_in = self.seq_len // 2 + 1 # FFT bins for input\n n_freq_out = self.pred_len // 2 + 1 # FFT bins for output\n hidden_dim = n_freq_in # moderate hidden size\n\n self.freq_correction = nn.Sequential(\n nn.Linear(2 * n_freq_in, hidden_dim),\n nn.GELU(),\n nn.Linear(hidden_dim, 2 * n_freq_out)\n )\n # Zero-init output layer: model starts as pure DLinear\n nn.init.zeros_(self.freq_correction[-1].weight)\n nn.init.zeros_(self.freq_correction[-1].bias)\n self.n_freq_out = n_freq_out\n\n def forecast(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec):\n # ---- RevIN: Instance normalization ----\n means = x_enc.mean(1, keepdim=True).detach()\n x_enc = x_enc - means\n stdev = torch.sqrt(\n torch.var(x_enc, dim=1, keepdim=True, unbiased=False) + 1e-5)\n x_enc = x_enc / stdev\n\n B, L, C = x_enc.shape\n\n # ---- DLinear path ----\n seasonal, trend = self.decomp(x_enc) # each [B, L, C]\n # Channel-independent linear projections (permute to [B, C, L])\n s_out = self.seasonal_proj(seasonal.permute(0, 2, 1)) # [B, C, pred_len]\n t_out = self.trend_proj(trend.permute(0, 2, 1)) # [B, C, pred_len]\n base_pred = s_out + t_out # [B, C, pred_len]\n\n # ---- Frequency correction path ----\n # Transform to frequency domain\n x_freq = torch.fft.rfft(\n x_enc.permute(0, 2, 1), dim=-1) # [B, C, n_freq_in]\n # Concatenate real and imaginary parts\n x_ri = torch.cat(\n [x_freq.real, x_freq.imag], dim=-1) # [B, C, 2*n_freq_in]\n # Non-linear frequency processing\n y_ri = self.freq_correction(x_ri) # [B, C, 2*n_freq_out]\n # Reconstruct complex frequency representation\n y_freq = torch.complex(\n y_ri[:, :, :self.n_freq_out],\n y_ri[:, :, self.n_freq_out:])\n # Transform back to time domain\n correction = torch.fft.irfft(\n y_freq, n=self.pred_len, dim=-1) # [B, C, pred_len]\n\n # ---- Combine ----\n dec_out = (base_pred + correction).permute(0, 2, 1) # [B, pred_len, C]\n\n # ---- De-normalization ----\n dec_out = dec_out * stdev[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(\n 1, self.pred_len, 1)\n dec_out = dec_out + means[:, 0, :].unsqueeze(1).repeat(\n 1, self.pred_len, 1)\n\n return dec_out\n\n def forward(self, x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec, mask=None):\n if (self.task_name == 'long_term_forecast' or\n self.task_name == 'short_term_forecast'):\n dec_out = self.forecast(x_enc, x_mark_enc, x_dec, x_mark_dec)\n return dec_out[:, -self.pred_len:, :]\n return None\n"
7}Tool ResultStep 3
OK: Replaced lines 1..120 with 119 line(s) in Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py. Editable range: entire file.
[Current file: Time-Series-Library/models/Custom.py | editable: 1–119 | total: 119 lines]
1 import torch
2 import torch.nn as nn
3 from layers.Autoformer_EncDec import series_decomp
4
5
6 class Model(nn.Module):
7 """
8 Frequency-Corrected Decomposition Linear (FC-DLinear).
9
10 Novel algorithmic contribution: Augments DLinear with a non-linear
11 frequency-domain residual correction that captures cross-frequency
12 interactions the linear time-domain projections miss.
13
14 Architecture:
15 1. RevIN (instance normalization) for distribution shift handling
16 2. DLinear backbone: series decomposition (moving average) into
17 trend + seasonal, each processed by independent linear projections
18 3. Frequency correction path: FFT of
AssistantStep 4test
Tool ResultStep 4
[Test #2] (1 test remaining; call submit(n=2) to submit this result) ### ETTh1 (scripts/etth1.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=0.3775500 vali_loss=0.7122014 test_loss=0.4022113 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=0.3676581 vali_loss=0.7062190 test_loss=0.3973622 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.3652737 vali_loss=0.7079518 test_loss=0.3955962 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.3642157 vali_loss=0.7070213 test_loss=0.3947863 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=0.3630644 vali_loss=0.7066574 test_loss=0.3944199 Test results (ETTh1): MSE: 0.397427, MAE: 0.407877 ### Weather (scripts/weather.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=0.5062701 vali_loss=0.4819774 test_loss=0.1946116 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=0.5038104 vali_loss=0.4812831 test_loss=0.1946494 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.5028953 vali_loss=0.4819929 test_loss=0.1953168 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.5025015 vali_loss=0.4813763 test_loss=0.1953072 TRA
AssistantStep 5submit
Tool Input
1{
2 "n": 2
3}Tool ResultStep 5
[submit] Submitting result from test #2 as final. ### ETTh1 (scripts/etth1.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=0.3775500 vali_loss=0.7122014 test_loss=0.4022113 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=0.3676581 vali_loss=0.7062190 test_loss=0.3973622 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.3652737 vali_loss=0.7079518 test_loss=0.3955962 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.3642157 vali_loss=0.7070213 test_loss=0.3947863 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6 train_loss=0.3630644 vali_loss=0.7066574 test_loss=0.3944199 Test results (ETTh1): MSE: 0.397427, MAE: 0.407877 ### Weather (scripts/weather.sh) Training metrics (last epochs): TRAIN_METRICS epoch=2 train_loss=0.5062701 vali_loss=0.4819774 test_loss=0.1946116 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=3 train_loss=0.5038104 vali_loss=0.4812831 test_loss=0.1946494 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=4 train_loss=0.5028953 vali_loss=0.4819929 test_loss=0.1953168 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=5 train_loss=0.5025015 vali_loss=0.4813763 test_loss=0.1953072 TRAIN_METRICS epoch=6