Agent Conversation: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6

Model: anthropic/claude-opus-4.6
Total steps: 5
Messages: 12
UserStep 0

Task: ml-missing-data-imputation

Missing Data Imputation

Research Question

Design a novel missing data imputation method that achieves low reconstruction error and preserves downstream predictive performance across diverse tabular datasets.

Background

Missing data is ubiquitous in real-world datasets. Simple approaches like mean/median imputation ignore feature correlations, while iterative predictive methods can capture them more directly. This task evaluates imputation methods that:

  • Captures complex inter-feature dependencies
  • Works well on datasets of varying sizes and feature types
  • Produces imputations that preserve the statistical structure needed for downstream tasks

Task

Implement a custom imputation algorithm in the CustomImputer class in custom_imputation.py. The class follows the scikit-learn transformer interface: fit(X) learns from data with missing values (NaN), and transform(X) returns a complete matrix with no NaN values.

Interface

class CustomImputer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):
    def __init__(self, random_state=42, max_iter=10):
        ...

    def fit(self, X, y=None):
        # X: numpy array (n_samples, n_features) with NaN for missing values
        # Learn imputation model
        return self

    def transform(self, X):
        # X: numpy array (n_samples, n_features) with NaN for missing values
        # Return: numpy array (n_samples, n_features) with NO NaN values
        return X_imputed

Available libraries: numpy, scipy, scikit-learn (all submodules including sklearn.impute, sklearn.ensemble, sklearn.neighbors, etc.).

Evaluation

Evaluated on three datasets with 20% MCAR (Missing Completely At Random) missing values:

  • Breast Cancer Wisconsin (569 samples, 30 features, binary classification)
  • Wine (178 samples, 13 features, 3-class classification)
  • California Housing (5000 samples, 8 features, regression)

Two metrics per dataset:

  • RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error between imputed and true values (lower is better)
  • downstream_score: Classification accuracy (breast_cancer, wine) or R^2 (california) using GradientBoosting on the imputed data (higher is better)

scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py [EDITABLE — lines 36–131 only]

     1: """Custom missing data imputation benchmark.
     2: 
     3: This script evaluates a missing data imputation method across multiple datasets
     4: with artificially introduced missing values. The agent should modify the EDITABLE
     5: section to implement a novel imputation algorithm.
     6: 
     7: Datasets (selected by $ENV):
     8:   - breast_cancer:  Classification, 569 samples x 30 features (binary)
     9:   - wine:           Classification, 178 samples x 13 features (3-class)
    10:   - california:     Regression, 20640 samples x 8 features (continuous target)
    11: 
    12: Missing patterns: MCAR (Missing Completely At Random) at 20% rate.
    13: 
    14: Metrics:
    15:   - rms
AssistantStep 1edit
Tool Input
1{
2  "op": "replace",
3  "filename": "scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py",
4  "start_line": 36,
5  "end_line": 131,
6  "content": "# ================================================================\n# EDITABLE -- agent modifies this section (lines 36 to 142)\n# ================================================================\n\n\nclass _AdaptiveEnsembleRegressor(BaseEstimator):\n    \"\"\"Adaptive ensemble combining BayesianRidge and ExtraTreesRegressor.\n\n    Novel contribution: Uses out-of-bag error estimation from ExtraTrees and\n    AIC-corrected training error from BayesianRidge to determine per-feature\n    adaptive weights between linear and nonlinear models. This allows the\n    imputation to adapt to each feature's dependency structure automatically.\n    \"\"\"\n\n    def __init__(self, random_state=42):\n        self.random_state = random_state\n\n    def fit(self, X, y):\n        from sklearn.linear_model import BayesianRidge\n        from sklearn.ensemble import ExtraTreesRegressor\n\n        n, p = X.shape\n        y_var = np.var(y)\n\n        # Fit linear model (fast, regularized)\n        self.br_ = BayesianRidge()\n        self.br_.fit(X, y)\n\n        # Fit nonlinear model with OOB for free error estimation\n        n_est = min(100, max(20, n // 3))\n        use_oob = n >= 10\n        self.et_ = ExtraTreesRegressor(\n            n_estimators=n_est,\n            max_features=\"sqrt\" if p > 2 else max(1, p),\n            bootstrap=True,\n            oob_score=use_oob,\n            random_state=self.random_state,\n            n_jobs=-1,\n            min_samples_leaf=max(1, n // 100),\n        )\n        self.et_.fit(X, y)\n\n        # Handle degenerate case\n        if y_var < 1e-12:\n            self.w_br_ = 0.5\n            self.w_et_ = 0.5\n            return self\n\n        # Error estimation for adaptive weighting\n        # BayesianRidge: AIC-corrected training MSE\n        mse_br = np.mean((y - self.br_.predict(X)) ** 2)\n        aic_correction = 1.0 + 2.0 * min(p, n // 2) / max(n - p - 1, 1)\n        err_br = mse_br * aic_correction + 1e-10\n\n        # ExtraTrees: OOB-based error (approximately unbiased)\n        has_oob = (use_oob and hasattr(self.et_, 'oob_score_') and\n                   self.et_.oob_score_ is not None and\n                   not np.isnan(self.et_.oob_score_))\n        if has_oob:\n            err_et = y_var * (1.0 - max(-1.0, self.et_.oob_score_)) + 1e-10\n        else:\n            # Fallback: assume tree is no better than variance\n            err_et = y_var + 1e-10\n\n        # Inverse error weighting\n        inv_br = 1.0 / err_br\n        inv_et = 1.0 / err_et\n        total = inv_br + inv_et\n        self.w_br_ = inv_br / total\n        self.w_et_ = inv_et / total\n\n        return self\n\n    def predict(self, X):\n        return self.w_br_ * self.br_.predict(X) + self.w_et_ * self.et_.predict(X)\n\n\nclass CustomImputer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):\n    \"\"\"Two-Phase Adaptive Ensemble Iterative Imputation (TPAEII).\n\n    Novel algorithm that combines two phases for robust missing data imputation:\n\n    Phase 1 (Warm Start): Quick linear imputation using BayesianRidge via\n        sklearn's IterativeImputer. This captures linear inter-feature\n        dependencies and provides a good initialization for Phase 2.\n\n    Phase 2 (Adaptive Ensemble Refinement): Custom iterative imputation loop\n        where each feature's missing values are predicted using an adaptive\n        ensemble of BayesianRidge (linear) and ExtraTreesRegressor (nonlinear).\n        The mixing weights are determined per-feature using:\n        - OOB error from ExtraTrees (unbiased, free from bootstrap)\n        - AIC-corrected training error from BayesianRidge\n\n    Key advantages over baselines:\n    - Unlike MICE (linear only): captures nonlinear dependencies\n    - Unlike MissForest (trees only): retains linear signal, avoids overfitting\n    - Per-feature adaptive weighting adjusts to each feature's characteristics\n    - Warm start ensures nonlinear models work with reasonable initial values\n    \"\"\"\n\n    def __init__(self, random_state=42, max_iter=10):\n        self.random_state = random_state\n        self.max_iter = max_iter\n\n    def fit(self, X, y=None):\n        self._impute_cache = self._impute(X)\n        return self\n\n    def transform(self, X):\n        if hasattr(self, '_impute_cache'):\n            result = self._impute_cache\n            del self._impute_cache\n            return result\n        return self._impute(X)\n\n    def fit_transform(self, X, y=None):\n        return self._impute(X)\n\n    def _impute(self, X):\n        from sklearn.experimental import enable_iterative_imputer  # noqa\n        from sklearn.impute import IterativeImputer\n        from sklearn.linear_model import BayesianRidge\n\n        miss_mask = np.isnan(X)\n        n_samples, n_features = X.shape\n\n        # Phase 1: Linear warm start (fast, captures linear dependencies)\n        linear_iters = min(3, self.max_iter)\n        imp_linear = IterativeImputer(\n            estimator=BayesianRidge(),\n            max_iter=linear_iters,\n            random_state=self.random_state,\n            initial_strategy=\"median\",\n            imputation_order=\"ascending\",\n            tol=1e-3,\n        )\n        X_imp = imp_linear.fit_transform(X)\n\n        # Phase 2: Adaptive ensemble refinement\n        miss_count = miss_mask.sum(axis=0)\n        features_with_missing = np.where(miss_count > 0)[0]\n        features_with_missing = features_with_missing[\n            np.argsort(miss_count[features_with_missing])\n        ]\n\n        if len(features_with_missing) == 0:\n            return X_imp\n\n        ensemble_iters = max(self.max_iter - linear_iters, 5)\n\n        for iteration in range(ensemble_iters):\n            X_prev = X_imp.copy()\n\n            for j in features_with_missing:\n                obs_idx = ~miss_mask[:, j]\n                mis_idx = miss_mask[:, j]\n\n                if mis_idx.sum() == 0:\n                    continue\n\n                other_features = [k for k in range(n_features) if k != j]\n                X_train = X_imp[obs_idx][:, other_features]\n                y_train = X[obs_idx, j]  # Original observed values\n                X_pred_data = X_imp[mis_idx][:, other_features]\n\n                model = _AdaptiveEnsembleRegressor(\n                    random_state=self.random_state\n                )\n                model.fit(X_train, y_train)\n                X_imp[mis_idx, j] = model.predict(X_pred_data)\n\n            # Convergence check\n            diff = np.sum((X_imp - X_prev) ** 2)\n            denom = np.sum(X_imp ** 2) + 1e-10\n            if diff / denom < 1e-4:\n                break\n\n        return X_imp\n\n\n# Helper functions for the custom imputer (optional, agent may add more)\ndef compute_feature_correlations(X):\n    \"\"\"Compute pairwise correlations, ignoring NaN pairs.\"\"\"\n    n_features = X.shape[1]\n    corr = np.eye(n_features)\n    for i in range(n_features):\n        for j in range(i + 1, n_features):\n            mask = ~(np.isnan(X[:, i]) | np.isnan(X[:, j]))\n            if mask.sum() > 2:\n                c = np.corrcoef(X[mask, i], X[mask, j])[0, 1]\n                corr[i, j] = corr[j, i] = c if not np.isnan(c) else 0.0\n    return corr\n\n"
7}
Tool ResultStep 1
OK: Replaced lines 36..131 with 193 line(s) in scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py. Editable range: 36–228.

[Current file: scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py | editable: 36–228 | total: 358 lines]
    36  # ================================================================
    37  # EDITABLE -- agent modifies this section (lines 36 to 142)
    38  # ================================================================
       ... (187 more lines) ...
   226                  corr[i, j] = corr[j, i] = c if not np.isnan(c) else 0.0
   227      return corr
   228  
AssistantStep 2test
Tool ResultStep 2
[Test #1] (2 tests remaining; call submit(n=N) to choose which test result to submit as final)

### breast_cancer (scripts/breast_cancer.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.393885
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.952585
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.949076
Test results (breast_cancer):
  rmse: 0.393885
  downstream_score: 0.952585

### wine (scripts/wine.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.797351
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.932540
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.921429
Test results (wine):
  rmse: 0.797351
  downstream_score: 0.932540

[Leaderboard] Results saved: {'rmse_breast_cancer': 0.393885, 'downstream_score_breast_cancer': 0.952585, 'elapsed_breast_cancer': 25, 'rmse_wine': 0.797351, 'downstream_score_wine': 0.93254, 'elapsed_wine': 25, 'rmse_california': 0.769877, 'downstream_score_california': 0.646877, 'elapsed_califo
AssistantStep 3edit
Tool Input
1{
2  "op": "replace",
3  "filename": "scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py",
4  "start_line": 36,
5  "end_line": 228,
6  "content": "# ================================================================\n# EDITABLE -- agent modifies this section (lines 36 to 142)\n# ================================================================\n\n\nclass CustomImputer(BaseEstimator, TransformerMixin):\n    \"\"\"Per-Feature Stacked Multi-Method Imputation (PF-SMMI).\n\n    Novel algorithm that combines diverse imputation methods via per-feature\n    cross-validated stacking with a neutral evaluator:\n\n    1. Runs three diverse base imputers independently:\n       - MICE (BayesianRidge): captures linear inter-feature dependencies\n       - Iterative ExtraTrees: captures nonlinear dependencies\n       - KNN: captures local neighborhood structure\n\n    2. For each feature, evaluates each method's imputation quality by measuring\n       how well the imputed OTHER features predict the target feature's OBSERVED\n       values (using BayesianRidge as a neutral evaluator in cross-validation).\n       The method that produces more informative imputed features scores better.\n\n    3. Combines per-feature imputations using squared inverse MSE weights\n       (temperature=2 softmax), giving sharper selection toward the best method.\n\n    Key novelty: Per-feature adaptive model selection via neutral cross-validated\n    evaluation of diverse imputation pipelines. This automatically adapts to each\n    feature's dependency structure - using linear imputation for linearly-dependent\n    features and nonlinear for nonlinearly-dependent features.\n    \"\"\"\n\n    def __init__(self, random_state=42, max_iter=10):\n        self.random_state = random_state\n        self.max_iter = max_iter\n\n    def fit(self, X, y=None):\n        self._cache = self._impute(X)\n        return self\n\n    def transform(self, X):\n        if hasattr(self, '_cache'):\n            r = self._cache\n            del self._cache\n            return r\n        return self._impute(X)\n\n    def fit_transform(self, X, y=None):\n        return self._impute(X)\n\n    def _impute(self, X):\n        from sklearn.experimental import enable_iterative_imputer  # noqa\n        from sklearn.impute import IterativeImputer, KNNImputer\n        from sklearn.linear_model import BayesianRidge\n        from sklearn.ensemble import ExtraTreesRegressor\n        from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score, KFold\n\n        miss_mask = np.isnan(X)\n        n, p = X.shape\n        mi = max(self.max_iter, 10)\n\n        # === Base Imputer 1: MICE (linear dependencies) ===\n        X_mice = IterativeImputer(\n            estimator=BayesianRidge(),\n            max_iter=mi,\n            random_state=self.random_state,\n            initial_strategy=\"median\",\n            imputation_order=\"ascending\",\n            tol=1e-3,\n        ).fit_transform(X)\n\n        # === Base Imputer 2: Iterative ExtraTrees (nonlinear dependencies) ===\n        X_et = IterativeImputer(\n            estimator=ExtraTreesRegressor(\n                n_estimators=100,\n                max_features=\"sqrt\",\n                random_state=self.random_state,\n                n_jobs=-1,\n            ),\n            max_iter=mi,\n            random_state=self.random_state,\n            initial_strategy=\"median\",\n            imputation_order=\"ascending\",\n            tol=1e-3,\n        ).fit_transform(X)\n\n        # === Base Imputer 3: KNN (local structure) ===\n        knn_k = min(7, max(3, n // 20))\n        X_knn = KNNImputer(\n            n_neighbors=knn_k,\n            weights=\"distance\",\n        ).fit_transform(X)\n\n        # === Per-Feature Stacking with Neutral Evaluator ===\n        X_result = X.copy()\n\n        for j in range(p):\n            obs_j = ~miss_mask[:, j]\n            mis_j = miss_mask[:, j]\n\n            if not mis_j.any():\n                continue\n\n            # Keep observed values\n            X_result[obs_j, j] = X[obs_j, j]\n\n            n_obs = obs_j.sum()\n            other = [idx for idx in range(p) if idx != j]\n            y_obs = X[obs_j, j]\n\n            if n_obs >= 15 and len(other) >= 1:\n                n_cv = min(5, max(3, n_obs // 5))\n                cv = KFold(\n                    n_splits=n_cv, shuffle=True,\n                    random_state=self.random_state,\n                )\n\n                # Neutral evaluator: BayesianRidge (no bias toward any method)\n                errors = []\n                for X_method in [X_mice, X_et, X_knn]:\n                    try:\n                        scores = cross_val_score(\n                            BayesianRidge(),\n                            X_method[obs_j][:, other],\n                            y_obs,\n                            cv=cv,\n                            scoring=\"neg_mean_squared_error\",\n                        )\n                        mse = -np.mean(scores) + 1e-10\n                    except Exception:\n                        mse = 1e6\n                    errors.append(mse)\n\n                # Squared inverse MSE weighting (sharper model selection)\n                inv_errors = np.array([1.0 / e for e in errors]) ** 2\n                weights = inv_errors / inv_errors.sum()\n            else:\n                weights = np.array([1.0 / 3, 1.0 / 3, 1.0 / 3])\n\n            # Weighted combination of imputations for missing entries\n            X_result[mis_j, j] = (\n                weights[0] * X_mice[mis_j, j]\n                + weights[1] * X_et[mis_j, j]\n                + weights[2] * X_knn[mis_j, j]\n            )\n\n        return X_result\n\n\n# Helper functions for the custom imputer\ndef compute_feature_correlations(X):\n    \"\"\"Compute pairwise correlations, ignoring NaN pairs.\"\"\"\n    n_features = X.shape[1]\n    corr = np.eye(n_features)\n    for i in range(n_features):\n        for j in range(i + 1, n_features):\n            mask = ~(np.isnan(X[:, i]) | np.isnan(X[:, j]))\n            if mask.sum() > 2:\n                c = np.corrcoef(X[mask, i], X[mask, j])[0, 1]\n                corr[i, j] = corr[j, i] = c if not np.isnan(c) else 0.0\n    return corr\n\n"
7}
Tool ResultStep 3
OK: Replaced lines 36..228 with 160 line(s) in scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py. Editable range: 36–195.

[Current file: scikit-learn/custom_imputation.py | editable: 36–195 | total: 325 lines]
    36  # ================================================================
    37  # EDITABLE -- agent modifies this section (lines 36 to 142)
    38  # ================================================================
       ... (154 more lines) ...
   193                  corr[i, j] = corr[j, i] = c if not np.isnan(c) else 0.0
   194      return corr
   195  
AssistantStep 4test
Tool ResultStep 4
[Test #2] (1 test remaining; call submit(n=N) to choose which test result to submit as final)

### breast_cancer (scripts/breast_cancer.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.400189
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.954339
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.949076
Test results (breast_cancer):
  rmse: 0.400189
  downstream_score: 0.954339

### wine (scripts/wine.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=1.015000
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.921746
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.921429
Test results (wine):
  rmse: 1.015000
  downstream_score: 0.921746

[Leaderboard] Results saved: {'rmse_breast_cancer': 0.400189, 'downstream_score_breast_cancer': 0.954339, 'elapsed_breast_cancer': 49, 'rmse_wine': 1.015, 'downstream_score_wine': 0.921746, 'elapsed_wine': 49, 'rmse_california': 0.733775, 'downstream_score_california': 0.651678, 'elapsed_californi
AssistantStep 5submit
Tool Input
1{
2  "n": 1
3}
Tool ResultStep 5
[submit] Submitting result from test #1 as final.

### breast_cancer (scripts/breast_cancer.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.393885
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.952585
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.949076
Test results (breast_cancer):
  rmse: 0.393885
  downstream_score: 0.952585

### wine (scripts/wine.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.797351
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.932540
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.921429
Test results (wine):
  rmse: 0.797351
  downstream_score: 0.932540

### california (scripts/california.sh)
Training metrics (last lines):
TRAIN_METRICS stage=fitting
TRAIN_METRICS stage=done
TRAIN_METRICS rmse=0.769877
TRAIN_METRICS downstream_score=0.646877
TRAIN_METRICS baseline_no_missing=0.762435
Test results (california):
  rmse: 0.769877
  downstream_score: 0.646877

[submit] Finalized test #1 as fina